“A massive blunder,” is what Coast-al Conservation Association Florida called a National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) “emergency rule” that cripples recreational grouper fishing in the Gulf of Mexico.

We agree.

The temporary rule, effective August 9, 2005, through Jan 23, 2006, reduces the Gulf Coast recreational bag limit of red grouper to one fish; cuts the overall grouper bag to three; and—most shocking—closes the recreational grouper fishery November 1 through the end of the year.

All this comes because of a contentious blip in statistics.

Red grouper are no longer classified as “overfished,” which means that research indicates that a viable breeding stock exists. But a 2002 stock assessment showed that overfishing is occurring, which means that at the present rate of landings the species may decline below a viable number of breeders. Thus, NMFS developed a rebuilding plan based on an 81 to 19 percent commercial to recreational harvest ratio. The trouble came when recent Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) data showed a soaring increase in recreational catches of red grouper in 2004. The increase put the recreational fleet 130 percent over their allotment, triggering an unusually rapid response from federal fisheries managers.

Captain Ralph Allen, who runs a fleet of charterboats in Punta Gorda, echoed the sentiments of many observers: “If the rec landings doubled, I would’ve heard somebody say they were catching a lot of red grouper, but I haven’t heard that. With the hurricanes last summer, people were sitting out weeks at a time.”

Meanwhile, the grouper plot thickened to molasses as to when and how the federal rule would apply in state waters.

When considering the NMFS proposal before it was imposed, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission voted to go along with the two-to-one bag limit reduction but not the November-December closure or aggregate cut.

That would mean anglers could continue to take grouper in state waters (mainly gags) out 9 nautical miles, while offshore a complete closure is in effect.

Phil Steele, a spokesman for NMFS, defended his agency’s actions. “We understand it’s going to be hard on some people this year, but we’re on a rebuilding path. We think we have had several strong year-classes of fish and we think we will be able to maintain a year-round fishery. But to do that we need to look ahead.”

It’s certain the closure will cause a major economic blow to the recreational fishing industry on Florida’s Southwest and West Central coasts. It will also affect the Big Bend and western Florida Panhandle in a big way—especially on the heels of two busy hurricane seasons.

Most years, fishermen between Pensacola and Panama City Beach target gag grouper after the annual Oct. 31 closure of red snapper season. Gags are year-round abundant here, and that’s a good thing, because migratory kingfish, cobia and tunas pretty much leave town right around the first of November.

“This new regulation limits the only reason people up here fish in winter and cripples the charter industry,” said Buck Hall of Pensacola, FS Panhandle field editor. “We’ve already lost half the summer because of Hurricane Dennis. The tackle stores will lose recreational anglers for the last half of the year.”

Although NMFS defends its methods used to estimate the huge 2004 spike in landings that caused the interim rule, it’s already been shown that the data from the first four months of ’05 indicate a 56 percent reduction from ’04. And large variations in estimated landings over the past five years raise further questions about the survey.